Congress Extends Flood Insurance Program To September 30th

Update July 19, 2010

The House of Representatives has approved a five years extension of the flood insurance program. It has not yet been signed into law. It must still pass the senate before it can be sent to the President for signature.

Federal flood insurance is again available to buyers of Daytona Beach and Ormond Beach homes and condos. This is very important for people buying on the beachside and near waterways on the mainland. The legislation allows policies written before the extension to be retroactive, however, and this is very important, there is still a 30 waiting period between the date a policy is written and when it takes effect.

There are two important points to remember about flood insurance when buying a home:

1. The policy takes 30 days to be effective after it is written
2. Close before September 30th if you need flood insurance

We talked about the 30 days waiting period above, but if your are required to have flood insurance by a mortgage lender, you will need to set your closing date before September 30. I advise targeting 3-4 weeks earlier to make sure that any delays don’t push you into October. Also, policies will not go into effect if there is a storm that could affect the area. Give yourself plenty cushion.

If you’re paying cash, your closing won’t be delayed, but you could be without flood insurance until congress decides to extend coverage again. The current extension is the fourth extension without  a permanent law. There was a delay in the last extension that caused delays in about 1,200 closings a day across the country. The likelihood of another delay is high.

Please contact your insurance agent and instruct them to make sure that the flood insurance policy will be effective, not just written, on the day that you close.

Daytona Real Estate Sales Up in May 2010

A 1.6% increase may not seem like much. That’s what we saw in May over April sales. That’s not the news. The news is that we are up 23.5% year over year when we compare May of this year against last year. Local Daytona Beach home sales gains over 2009 are holding.

For the first five month of 2010 sales are up 30.4% over 2009. We’ve sold 428 more homes and condos than during the same period last year. That’s the important trend. Even if sales were to stay steady, or even decline slightly, on a month to month basis, the market has regained a lot of its strength lost during 2007 and 2008.

The composition of sales however has changed radically. Most home sales are still occurring in the under $200,000 price range. Take a look at the chart below and you will see how sales under $200,000 dominate the market.

80.5% of sales in May were under $200,000. Add the 11% of sales between $200,000 and $300,000 and the total rises to 91.5%. Only 36 of the 426 homes and condos sold were sold for over $300,000. This is a trend that we have seen for over two years and is still increasing slightly. In April, 90.4% of sales were under $300,000.

What Do May Numbers Mean?

First, with sales under $200,000 dominating the market at 90.5% of all sales, homes and condos in this price range are going to sell faster for sellers. For buyers, homes in the this price range that are priced right, will have more competition with other buyers. It’s not unusual for an aggressively priced bank-owned foreclosure property under $200,000 to have multiple offers and a bit of a bidding war.

Second, more expensive homes and condos have significantly lower sales and less competition. Homes and condos over $300,000 must jump out as a significant value. The listing price must be backed up by value. An attractive, properly priced listing in any price range must have its value showcased and made clear to prospective buyers.

Three Factors to Watch

We see three factors to watch closely this year to time your home purchase:

• Home Prices
• Mortgage Rates
• Inflation

It’s rising prices you need to be watching. No, we are not seeing rising prices yet, but it will happen. Some markets are recovering in price, but not sales. We have recovered in sales, but not price. When prices of Ormond Beach homes for sale and other area homes start to rise, we expect a mini-boom if people panic about getting what they see as a once in a lifetime bargain.

Mortgage rates and inflation are tied together. Watch both because if you are financing, it can cost you a lot. A big jump in inflation rates will boost mortgage rates. Here’s what happens:

Monthly Payment for a $200,000 mortgage at 5.14% = $1,090.82

Monthly Payment for a $200,000 mortgage at 5.44% = $1,128.06

Monthly Payment for a $200,000 mortgage at 6.00% = $1,199.10

Monthly Payment for a $200,000 mortgage at 6.5% = $1,264.14

Rates going from 5.14% to 6.5% is not unrealistic. Remember 1980s Interest Rates.

Is Now the Right Time to Buy?

We think it’s a good time to buy, but don’t take our word. Look at the 426 people who bought homes and condos in May. 1835 votes were cast by buyers so far this year, 30.4% more than last year and 57.1% more than in 2008. The people who vote with their money are the people we watch.

We are concerned about inflation. We believe there will be higher inflation to pay for record government spending and borrowing. It’s a matter of when, not if. If you are financing and qualify now, consider the value of having a 5% mortgage rate if rates go to 7, 8 or 9%.

Please give me a call at 386-566-7503 to discuss the market and your options.

What Important Steps Are You Missing?

More people are buying homes and condos. Sales of Daytona Beach Homes and Condos are up 32.7% in the first four months of 2010 compared to 2009. The reasons are pretty simple – low prices and low interest rates.

Daytona Beach short sales and foreclosures are presenting some truly amazing bargains and getting one of these great deals is what you are after. But, it’s important to follow some critical steps when buying. This short guide will give you the basics of buying in the current market.

Know What You Want

What do you want in a home or condo? How much will you pay? Where do you want to be located? Answer these questions before you get serious. The number of properties available in this market make this step really important. When you’re browsing, this step is not important, but when you think you are ready to explore buying, you really must define your wants and needs.

Know the Market Where You Buy

You need to know the local market and the smaller markets within the broad markets. You can find a lot of information and pricing trends at zillow.com, trulia.com, housevalues.com and many others. These services are great for research, but the information is often a few months behind. More current information is available from an active local real estate agent. We have access to the most current information. You can also search all current homes and condos for sales in Ormond Beach, Daytona Beach and the Shores, Port Orange, Ponce Inlet, Holly Hill and South Daytona. Just click here –> Search Daytona Beach Area Properties.

Get Your Financing In Order

In many cases these days, we are dealing directly with banks and mortgage companies. When we make an offer on a short sale or foreclosure, financing or proof of funds must be in place.

Venture Out

Once you know what you want, it’s time to view properties. Viewing properties is a process. We may start with a list of properties that interest you, maybe 5 or 10. You may like a few or none of the first list. Don’t be discouraged, this is part of the process and quite normal. What the best agents will do is ask you questions about each property you view to determine what you like and dislike. The next time you go out, you will be seeing properties based on that criteria. We continue through the process until you find the home or condo that meets your needs. Then we are ready for the offer and negotiations.

Make the Offer

How low should I go? The offer you make will be based on a few main factors:

• How long has the property been on the market?
• Are there other offers?
• Competition in the price range
• Time and Patience
• You

A two bedroom – two bath condo on the beach at a low price will draw competitive bids. If the property is on the market for a few days and has multiple offers, going well below the listed price will probably not work. If the property has been on the market for a long time, going low makes sense. For short sales and foreclosures, we often wait for weeks or months for an answer from the banks, so patience is needed.

In the Daytona Beach real estate market, homes and condos selling under $200,000 make up almost 79% of all sales. Well-priced properties under $200,000 will have more competition. However, over $300,000, fewer homes and condos are selling and being more aggressive makes a lot of sense.

The decision on making an offer on a property is yours and depends upon you more than anything else. We can offer guidance, but you need to make the decision. Let us get all the information available on the property and the most recent similar sales and tell you what we think, but you need to make the decision. However, you should negotiate in this market.

After Your Offer is Accepted

After the offer is accepted you MUST get an inspection. I don’t say must very often to my clients, but an inspection is necessary for you to protect yourself. You also need to carefully read to Title Report, especially if additions or modifications were made. Make sure what should have been permitted was properly recorded.

Read the Appraisal Report. You are looking for errors, missing features and anything else that could make the appraised value lower than it should be.

Get Help

A good real estate agent should make the process as easy as possible. You need an agent who is knowledgeable and active in the market. Work with someone who returns your calls and listens and responds. People tell us that that’s why they work with us. Call Lynn at 386-566-7503 with questions about the market or properties in the area. That’s why we’re here.

Positive Sales Trend Continues for Daytona Beach Real Estate

February 2010 Daytona Beach real estate sales continued a positive trend with a 27.7% increase over February a year ago, and a 14.4% increase over January sales. The numbers reported from the Daytona Beach MLS show the continued improvement we’ve seen over the past 14 months.

Looking at the chart below, we can see that sales under $200,000 continue to dominate the market.

Daytona Beach Real Estate Sales February 2010

This is the highest percentage sales that we’ve seen in that price range since we’ve started tracking over three years ago. When sales under $300,000 are considered, 92.1% of all sales come from the lower end of the market. A total of only 28 homes and condos were sold over $300,000.

The reason for sales dominance in the lower price ranges is that many people are finding what they are looking for. Distressed properties in the form of short sales and foreclosures are keeping prices down. There is also the factor that many of these properties need work. I have seen kitchen cabinets, plumbing fixtures and even wood flooring removed from distressed properties. That further lowers the value and the price of these properties.

Median sales of Daytona Beach homes and condos came in at $110,000 in February. The median is the middle point of the distribution of sales – one-half above and one-half below. This low value is no surprise when 44% of sales came in at under $100,000, and 79.5% were under $200,000. As long as this high a percentage of sales is in the lower price ranges, median values will stay low.

Quick Review of January 2010 Daytona Beach Real Estate Sales

The final numbers are in, and in January, Daytona Beach home sales were up against last January and down against last month. This is a mixed bag of up and down, but in-line with historical data. January and the first quarter have been the weakest month and quarter over the past two years. The summer and fall are the strongest months over the same period.

December was the highest sales months in over three years, so we need to keep that in mind when we compare January against those numbers. We’ve put together two charts to show the differences.

January 2010 vs. January 2009 Daytona Beach Home Sales

Daytona Beach Home Sales January 2010 vs. January 2009

Year over year, we saw a big 37.7% overall sales increase last month. The chart is broken down by the categories from the Daytona MLS. Single family houses dominate total sales with a total of 75% of all sales. Daytona Beach condo sales are the next strongest category with 22.2% of all sales. This is a good sign that January is stronger than last year, but when compared against last month the news doesn’t appear as good.

January 2010 vs. December 2009 Daytona Beach Home Sales

January 2010 vs. December 2009 Daytona Beach Home Sales

December was a big big month. With 417 properties sold, it was the highest sales month since the bubble burst. January show a 30% drop from December. We are not taking this lightly. Although we can look at historic numbers for an explanation, we’ve learned in this market not to attempt to predict anything too boldly. January has been the lowest sales month for the past two years, but last year the drop was only 4.9%. However, in 2008, the drop was 28.7%.

So there is some historical support for a drop of this size, but we need to keep in mind the pressures against home sales from the economy and distressed properties.

Where Do We Go From Here?

I boldy stated last month that I thought that with last year’s sales of close to 4,000 units, we were about where we would be without the bubble burst. I believe we are within 10% of that number. The January sales are in line with that view. Last year, the average monthly sales were 333. With January, the weakest month of the year, coming in at 292 properties sold, we are in line with meeting a average of 333 properties. Of course, there are no guarantees and we will need to watch as the year progresses. Make sure to visit here for regular updates.

National Real Estate News Can Be Dangerous for Local Buyers

When the national media publishes real estate news it may be contrary to local conditions and may actually harm you when making buying or selling decisions.

In December, national news outlets reported that overall sales of existing homes fell 17% across the United States. That seems pretty bad. You might have any number of different reactions to that news. It might very well influence your home buying or selling decisions.  However, during the same period, sales of Daytona Beach condos and homes were up 3% over the previous month, but a whopping 84.9% over the previous December. For 2009 results, see: Daytona Beach Real Estate Sales Up 38.1%.

In December, the S&P Case-Shiller Housing Price Index showed that prices rose in 14 of 20 markets. OK, how does that affect you? When national news sources report that housing prices are up, are they up in your neighborhood? Are they up for the area you want to buy?

There’s an adage in the newspaper business that all news is local news. That seems to be going away as many local papers are littered with stories from AP and Reuters wire services. But, for real estate the adage can be translated into all home and condo prices are local. Yes, prices are influenced by national economic and political conditions, but in the end, it’s the local market that determines prices.

The point of this article is to go to local sources when it’s in your best interest. For real estate, no matter where you are, a well informed local real estate agent may give you more relevant information during a 10 minute phone call than you could ever pick up from national news.

Finding a Knowledgeable Local Real Estate Agent

How do you know if you’ve found a local agent who knows the market? Well, a good place to start is to look at their website. Does the website contain local news reports and analysis? If it doesn’t, move on. In every area, an agent is likely to be blogging and issuing market reports. That’s a good place to start.

Daytona Beach Homes Months of Inventory Falls 52.4% in 18 Months

In the past 18 months, Daytona Beach Homes and Condos inventory, measured in months on the market, has dropped 52.4%.

We did a detailed analysis of homes inventory in July 2008. So, let’s compare July of 2008 when the market was close to its weakest point to now, after the highest sales month in over three years.

To check out the full analysis of July 2008 click here –> Daytona Beach Home Sales – Detailed Inventory Analysis July 2008. Let’s look at the overall difference first:

The first chart shows the difference in total inventory. We can see significant reductions in both condos and homes for sale. That’s a good sign considering it wasn’t too long ago, about 2-1/2 years when 7,000 residential properties were on the market. All the numbers we discuss here are for residential single-family homes and condos from the Daytona Beach MLS.

Housing Inventory Daytona Beach

The second chart shows total months of inventory. Again, we can see even more significant changes because of the increase in sales last year. Daytona Beach real estate sales were up 38.1% in 2009 over 2008 and these months of inventory numbers are calculated using December of 2009 sales when 414 homes and condos were sold.

Housing Months of Inventory Daytona Beach

So with the combination of higher sales and lower inventory, the total months of inventory for Daytona Beach residential real estate as listed in the MLS has dropped 52.4% of the last 18 months.

Current Daytona Beach Homes and Condos Inventory

This is significant. With a current inventory of 10.7 months, we are moving closer to a stable market. This number is still high compared to the boom period, but is getting closer a stable or neutral market. This is still a buyer’s market, but we need to look at the next chart to get a better understanding of inventory within different price ranges.

Daytona Beach Real Estate January 2010 Months of Inventory

If we consider about six months of inventory to be a neutral market; that is neither a buyer’s nor seller’s market, then homes under $100,000 have achieved that level. Condos under $100,000 and homes from $100,000 to $200,000 are close. Then we get to condos from $100,000 to $200,000 and home from $200,000 to $300,000 and we jump over the average.

74% of the total sales in Daytona Beach are under $200,000. That’s were the months of inventory are lowest. If you are a seller in this range, you are in a better position to sell than if you are attempting to sell a property over $200,000. Of course, your property needs to be priced right to sell regardless of price range.

If you’re a buyer, you will be seeing more competition in the lower price ranges. There are still tremendous bargains, but more properties are selling. More demand and less inventory indicates that price stabilization is occuring in the lower price ranges first.

Homes are selling in the higher price ranges, but not nearly in the same numbers. I’ve sold several condos recently above $200,000 and $300,000. I’m seeing a lot of interest in an Ormond Beach riverfront home on John Anderson Drive that priced just under $1,000,000. We had 10 showings and I have another one on Sunday.

What’s interesting about the drop in inventory and months of inventory is that this is happening in one of the communities hard hit by foreclosures. There are a lot of short sales, but despite the short sales and foreclosures, inventory is falling. This is one the most important factors in price stabilization and as mentioned above, we are already seeing this in the lower price ranges.

We’ll continue to monitor and report inventory numbers in the coming months.

2009 Sales of Daytona Beach Condos Improve 69.6%

Sales of Daytona Beach Condos increased significantly in 2009, both in sheer volume and as a percentage of all Daytona Beach real estate sales. 394 more condos were sold in 2009 than in 2008. 958 condos and condotels were sold in 2009 against a total of 564 for 2008.

The chart below shows the improvement visually. As you can see, in eleven of twelve months, condos sales were higher in 2009 than in 2008. The last four months of the year so an even more dramatic improvement that was in line with the overall increase in all 2009 Daytona Beach real estate sales.

2008-2009 Daytona Beach Condo Sales

Now it gets more interesting when we look at condos as a total percentage of all sales. In 2008, condo sales accounted for 19.5% of all residential sales through the Daytona Beach MLS. In 2009, the number increased to 24.0%. That means that on a percentage basis condo were up significantly.

As a percentage of all sales, condos were up 23.1%. This is important because the condo market had been accounting for about 1 of every 5 sales. In 2009, that changed to 1 out of every 4 sales.

Much of the increased interest in condos is because of affordability. I just sold a condo in a building in Ormond by the Sea for $245,000. A few years ago, a similar unit sold for over $500,000. That’s a big difference and make beachside living much more attractive to many people.

To discuss what I think are the best values in Daytona Beach condos for sale, give me a call at 386-566-7503.

You can search for area condos here:

Daytona Beach Condos for Sale (including Daytona Beach Shores)

Ormond Beach Condos for Sale

Port Orange Condos for Sale

Foreclosures are Not Going Away in Next Two Years

Foreclosures over the next two years will continue in Florida and around the country as more “interest only” and low payment loans come due for conversion.

At the end of the real estate bubble, people were buying Daytona Beach real estate with nothing more than stated income. The stated income in many cases covered only the interest only payment. Increases in income were expected to cover the increase in mortgage payments when the loan was converted and the borrowers started paying down the principal.

In addition to the payments increasing, some of the low payment loan did not cover the full interest payment and the unpaid interest has been added to the loan amount.

Interest Rates Rising

Another problem looming is the recent rise in mortgage rates are going to force payments even higher. The higher mortgage rates will make those payments unaffordable for many borrowers.

How many loans are out there? Here’s some numbers released by Fitch Ratings reported by Mortgage News Daily today:

• Loans to convert in 2010 – $47 billion
• Loans to convert in 2011 – $50 billion

$97 billion in loans, at let’s say an average of $200,000 per mortgage comes out to another 485,000 loans to convert. This is just one source leading to distressed properties. Continued unemployment and disappearing home equity are putting pressure on mortgage payments as well.

That’s a lot of money in loans that are likely to default when the higher payments become due. How many will be based on what happens with the economy in the next couple of years, but we are predicting a lot of the loans will become distressed and result in short sales and foreclosures.

Impact on Daytona Beach Homes and Condos

We know that Florida, Arizona and Nevada have a high percentage of these loans, many of which were bought on speculation. We expect we will continue to see many foreclosures and short sales. We remain concerned about the affect they will have on our market, but we also believe that the local market has already factored the reduced prices for short sales and foreclosure sales in market values.

Now, there are still tremendous deals to be had. The number of loans coming due for conversion means that the supply of distressed properties will be steady for the next two years plus. Not that there is a super high inventory of foreclosures. As of yesterday, 271 foreclosed properties were for sale through the Daytona Beach MLS. Most foreclosed property that is priced properly, and most are, are selling very fast, often with multiple bids.

Pricing is another story. Even though we still have historically high foreclosure rates, prices have stabilized in the past few months.

Another thing these numbers tell us is that for most people, the wisest course of action will be to buy and hold for at least five to seven years. All the distressed properties will have been worked out of the system by that time.

As we’ve stated in the past, we will be in a market dominated by foreclosures and short sales for several years to come. At least until 2012.

Photo Friday – September Sunset at Daytona Beach Municipal Stadium

Football is very popular in Daytona Beach and we have some pretty good football teams. This photo was taken in September during the Mainland vs. Osceola game. Mainland won the game after a big second half comeback.

Sunset at Daytona Beach Municipal Stadium

Football is big in the Daytona Beach area and five local teams went to the state playoffs in 2009: Seabreeze, Mainland, Warner Christian, Deland and New Smyrna Beach. Both Warner Christian and Deland made it to the state championship games before falling.

There is no doubt that football is a big part of the community here. Many of our players go on to play college ball and some like Sebastian Janikowski (Seabreeze) and Buster Davis (Mainland) play professionally. Sebastian was also the most gifted high school soccer player I’ve ever seen. He scored over 70 goals in his senior year.

My family has been in the Daytona Beach area since 1995. My son and Daytona Beach real estate partner  David is a 2000 graduate of Mainland where he played varsity soccer on the only Mainland team ever to play in the state playoffs. It is a great place to live and play.

And when the National Anthem is played before a high school football game with the flag waving in the breeze and thousands of people of all ages standing in its honor, my heart swells. The picture says it all.