The Daytona Beach Homes Market – The Elevator Version

Let’s say you know I am a Realtor. We are in an elevator and you ask me what’s happening in the Daytona Beach condos and homes market, here’s my quick elevator version:

“Our prices have dropped to where people are buying homes and condos in the lower price ranges, particularly under $200,000. Distressed properties from short sales and foreclosures will continue for another 2-3 years keeping prices from showing a significant rise. When distressed properties in big numbers are gone, our prices will rise. First, a short spike while people try to buy at the lowest prices and then more gradually. Much of the money to buy local homes and condos comes from outside the area from buyers of second and vacation homes. That makes the national economy more important to home and condo sales than the local economy. Any time in the next few years is a good time to get a great value. Interest rates are super low, making now probably the best time if you will be financing. Thanks for asking.”

That’s the elevator version, here’s why:

1. Distressed properties are driving prices
2. Different Price = Different Market
3. The Daytona Beach area is, Well it’s Different

Distressed Properties Drive Prices

No one has argued that foreclosures and short sales in Daytona Beach are driving home prices. Over the past several years, prices have dropped in half. While we don’t see prices dropping dramatically in the next two years, we do see short sales and foreclosures continuing through next year and into 2012. The reason is that adjustable rate mortgage loans with balloon payments or significant adjustments to monthly payments will continue to come due well into 2011. Many people will not be able to make the balloon payments or pay the higher rates. Refinancing for many of these people will be impossible. A good number will default.

Different Price = Different Market

The Daytona Beach real estate market is a fantasy. There is no one market. The biggest driver of creating different markets is price and in our area it creates many different markets. For simplicity, we are going to draw a line in the sand and create two vastly different markets.

The line is $300,000. The market under that price includes about 90% of all sales over the past several years. There are 9 sales in that price range for every sale above $300,000. In May, 80.5% of all sales were under $200,000 while 91.5% of all sales were under $300,000. So even though we drew the line at $300,000, most sales are under $200,000. The point is that the lower prices segment of the market is hot while the higher priced market is not. This is very important to understand when looking at the big picture.

The Daytona Beach Market is Different

Our market is different from other areas of Florida. We do not have a large industrial or commercial base in our economy. We are primarily a resort community. Many our owners do not receive their income in the area. They use their homes and condos as vacation or second homes. Some use them as investment properties. While almost 60% of sales in other areas were from first time home buyers, we don’t anywhere near that percentage here.

What I’ve seen is that because many of our buyers are from out of town, we were hit hard when the bubble burst in 2006. Our market also started to come back last year for exactly the same reason. Our real estate markets are out of sync with the national numbers because, well, we’re different.

As the national economy improves we will benefit more indirectly from outside buyers becoming more comfortable in buying a second or vacation home. The direct benefit from local residents buying will be much less than in Miami, Orlando, Tampa and many other cities with diversified economies.

That’s it. Leave a comment if you agree or not. If you want to discuss the market and your options, please give me a call at 386-566-7503. I sell condos and homes in Ormond Beach, Port Orange, Ponce Inlet, Palm Coast and all other Daytona Beach area communities.

Daytona Real Estate Sales Up in May 2010

A 1.6% increase may not seem like much. That’s what we saw in May over April sales. That’s not the news. The news is that we are up 23.5% year over year when we compare May of this year against last year. Local Daytona Beach home sales gains over 2009 are holding.

For the first five month of 2010 sales are up 30.4% over 2009. We’ve sold 428 more homes and condos than during the same period last year. That’s the important trend. Even if sales were to stay steady, or even decline slightly, on a month to month basis, the market has regained a lot of its strength lost during 2007 and 2008.

The composition of sales however has changed radically. Most home sales are still occurring in the under $200,000 price range. Take a look at the chart below and you will see how sales under $200,000 dominate the market.

80.5% of sales in May were under $200,000. Add the 11% of sales between $200,000 and $300,000 and the total rises to 91.5%. Only 36 of the 426 homes and condos sold were sold for over $300,000. This is a trend that we have seen for over two years and is still increasing slightly. In April, 90.4% of sales were under $300,000.

What Do May Numbers Mean?

First, with sales under $200,000 dominating the market at 90.5% of all sales, homes and condos in this price range are going to sell faster for sellers. For buyers, homes in the this price range that are priced right, will have more competition with other buyers. It’s not unusual for an aggressively priced bank-owned foreclosure property under $200,000 to have multiple offers and a bit of a bidding war.

Second, more expensive homes and condos have significantly lower sales and less competition. Homes and condos over $300,000 must jump out as a significant value. The listing price must be backed up by value. An attractive, properly priced listing in any price range must have its value showcased and made clear to prospective buyers.

Three Factors to Watch

We see three factors to watch closely this year to time your home purchase:

• Home Prices
• Mortgage Rates
• Inflation

It’s rising prices you need to be watching. No, we are not seeing rising prices yet, but it will happen. Some markets are recovering in price, but not sales. We have recovered in sales, but not price. When prices of Ormond Beach homes for sale and other area homes start to rise, we expect a mini-boom if people panic about getting what they see as a once in a lifetime bargain.

Mortgage rates and inflation are tied together. Watch both because if you are financing, it can cost you a lot. A big jump in inflation rates will boost mortgage rates. Here’s what happens:

Monthly Payment for a $200,000 mortgage at 5.14% = $1,090.82

Monthly Payment for a $200,000 mortgage at 5.44% = $1,128.06

Monthly Payment for a $200,000 mortgage at 6.00% = $1,199.10

Monthly Payment for a $200,000 mortgage at 6.5% = $1,264.14

Rates going from 5.14% to 6.5% is not unrealistic. Remember 1980s Interest Rates.

Is Now the Right Time to Buy?

We think it’s a good time to buy, but don’t take our word. Look at the 426 people who bought homes and condos in May. 1835 votes were cast by buyers so far this year, 30.4% more than last year and 57.1% more than in 2008. The people who vote with their money are the people we watch.

We are concerned about inflation. We believe there will be higher inflation to pay for record government spending and borrowing. It’s a matter of when, not if. If you are financing and qualify now, consider the value of having a 5% mortgage rate if rates go to 7, 8 or 9%.

Please give me a call at 386-566-7503 to discuss the market and your options.

Daytona Beach Real Estate Sales Up 99% Over 2008

November Daytona Beach real estate sales were recorded at 404 homes and condos in the Daytona Beach MLS, nearly doubling the 203 sales from a year ago. Sales were up 13.8% over October of this year. From the chart below, we can see that while sales are rising, the average sales price and median sales price have stabilized over the past few months.

2008-2009 Daytona Beach Real Estate Sales

The chart shows sales for the past 23 months. Sales in January 2008 were at 164 properties. That was the low point in sales. So, from that time, November sales are up 146% or 240 properties.

Daytona Beach Real Estate Sales Breakdown

The breakdown of sales by price is shown in the chart below. We can see that 76.5% of all sales were below $200,000, and 87.1% of all sales were below $300,000. This is consistent with what we have been seeing over the past two years. However, because of higher volume, more homes and condos are selling above $300,000.

November 2009 Daytona Beach Real Estate Sales

The 404 properties sold is the highest amount in a long time. There is speculation that the spike in sales nationwide was due to the fear of the expiration of the First Time Home Buyers Credit. We’re not so sure. We’ve sold 24 properties this year and only a few were first time home buyers. Most of our buyers are second homes or people moving into the area for retirement or semi-retirement.

We will see what happens in the coming months, but there are three factors that we see for the short term that will continue to drive sales:

1. Low Interest Rates
2. The extension of the Home Buyers Credit through offers accepted through April
3. Stabilizing Prices – prices in Miami actually rose recently according to Case-Shiller

The amazing thing about the sales in November is that November is not part of the peak selling season. That will occur during the Spring and Summer. You can see that in the chart for last year. 2007 looks very similar. 2009 shows a continuing up trend. We don’t know where the top is.

Daytona Beach Area Home Buyers – What To Do Now

What to do depends on your goals and objectives. Is this the price bottom? All we can say is maybe. We are concerned about another wave of foreclosures, but although there are a lot of foreclosures, the banks and mortgage lenders are not dumping a lot of properties on the market. They are more like drip feeding them into the system. That is contributing to keeping prices stable.

We still believe the best values are in short sales, but patience is required to navigate that process. Foreclosures, or Real Estate Owned (REO) properties are less complicated to buy, but usually do not result in the same level of discount as short sales.

If you are interested in buying Daytona Beach homes or condos in the short-term, you need to pay close attention to what is happening with prices. You can check back here for regular updates.

Dimitri’s Added to Restaurant Recommendations

We love Greek food. We’ve been sorely missing a nice place to go to for some gyro and Greek specialties. Well, after a tough closing today, we stopped for lunch at Dimitri’s in South Daytona and had a really good gyro sandwich.

The gyro sandwich was great and packed full of meat seasoned to perfection. Dimitri’s is a very nice sandwich place that you should try out if you love Greek food.

We’ll be going back often for some Gyro. They also have mousaka, pastitso, and dolmades on the menu and a host of sandwiches. We may try the some of the rest of the menu, but it will be tough not ordering the gyro again.

Dimitri’s is located at 2450 South Ridgewood (US1) in South Daytona. Give it a try. For more on Dimitri’s and more recommendations, check out our Daytona Beach Restaurant Recommendations.

I offer these recommendations because in my travels around the area helping Daytona Beach real estate buyers and sellers, I get to stop at a lot of places to lunch and dinner. I offer up recommendations on some of my favorite places.  Enjoy.

What is Market Price for Daytona Beach Homes and Condos?

The market price for Daytona Beach real estate is being driven by short sale and foreclosure transactions. If you are selling any property, whether or not you’re in financial distress or not, the price is being determined by these transactions.

The logic is quite simple – Why would a buyer want to pay the so-called market price, when they can buy 20-40% below market?

All the deals that I’ve done recently have been short sales or bank owned foreclosures. The prices were below market. Based on that and the experience of other agents in my office, we need to understand the true nature of the current market.

The True Nature of the Current Daytona Beach Real Estate Market

Condos in Daytona Beach and homes in Daytona Beach are selling below market value. Now, if all homes and condos are selling below market, what’s the real market value? It’s is, and always has been, what homes are selling for today.

There are two markets and that’s why 6,000 plus homes and condos are listed in the Daytona Beach MLS and there are many others that are being sold without listing in the MLS. It comes down to distressed properties and non-distressed properties. If you are attempting to sell a non-distressed property, you will need to be creative by offering incentives. The incentives may be something like  lease purchase or owner financing where you are tapping a market that cannot qualify for a mortgage in the current environment. You really need to offer a reason other than price because you can’t compete on price without losing significant equity.

Buyers are looking for bargains and if you home is priced at market, that’s not a bargain. We don’t see this situation changing anytime soon. Many ARMs and balloons are yet to come due – all the way out to 2011. It’s really a double whammy for a lot of people – they must accept the big adjustment because they can’t refinance the ARM, or worse, they can’t refinance when the balloon comes due because they can’t get mortgage money.

We see more distressed properties entering the market for the next few years. Worse, we fear that many of the people who are in negative equity situations, who need to sell, with walk away from their homes, making matters worse.

The situation is better for buyers, but many people are fearful of prices dropping further and waiting. This may be a prudent strategy, but if they are not involved in the market, they will miss the bottom. I suggest that anyone interested in buying or selling in this market, read our Daytona Beach Market Reports. We publish weekly and monthly reports with sales figures, interests and other important relevant information. You can always call me at 386-566-7503. We cover Ormond Beach, Port Orange, Palm Coast, Ponce Inlet, Holly Hill and surrounding areas.